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Network effects take time and are hard to build, but boy do they make things easier. (These from this morning alone) 🔗
Twitter should have a “close friends” feature where your tweets can only be seen by people you follow 🔗
Excellent analysis by @tylercowen on the response to Coronavirus. Your average person is looking at the base numbers affected and realizing it’s super small. Numbers-driven people are doing the math on the growth rate and losing their minds. 🔗
So have we officially laid to rest the notion that you can win an election with a little ad buying? 🔗
Lambda School’s ISA is capped. It costs $30k *only if* your income averages more than $88k/yr. Making $50k? You’ll pay $17k ($8.5k/yr). Making $70k? You’ll pay $23,800 ($11.9k/yr). Making $110k? You’ll pay $30k. Making $140k? You’ll pay $30k. Making $180k? You’ll pay $30k. 🔗
“It’s the greatest gig in the world, being alive. You get to eat at Denny’s, wear a hat - whatever you want to do. It’s wonderful.” - Norm Macdonald 🔗
Much love to @justinkan and the Atrium team tonight. Doesn’t always work out, even for phenomenal people. 🔗
The Ryans working at Lambda School right now put this together 🔗
It’s been a big week for Costco. Because of the Coronavirus scare everything they stock is flying off the shelves; stores are selling out of almost everything. Costco estimates their profit from this mass buying histeria to be *checks notes* thirty seven dollars. 🔗
I love Gitlab’s culture so much 🔗
Wondering how many companies will be forced to figure out remote work and will never go back 🔗
I'm super proud of the structure Lambda School has put in place for financing ISAs. * Incentives are totally aligned * Doesn't require huge amounts of VC * Doesn't change any terms for students at all * Outcomes quickly and directly affect cashflows 🔗
Honestly hats off to robinhood for correctly predicting all of its users would be shorting the market and losing a fortune. Always looking out for the user. 🔗
"You know that thing in the back of your mind that's nagging you, but you keep intellectualizing away? That's the thing that will kill the company. Go fix it right now." Best advice I ever received as a startup CEO. 🔗
#COVID19 death rate is low; estimates ~2%, might be high. But growth! R0 is between 2 and 3 (!) So for everyone who catches it 2-3 more people get it. Insanely fast. Extrapolate those numbers and you get 20% of planet infected, a million dead in short order. But it’s so early. 🔗
Post your predictions in the replies: What happens to the S&P 500 on Monday? Winner gets bragging rights. 🔗
My daughter just told me she learned how to pump this past week so “you never have to push me again” and why do they have to grow up so fast 🔗
Mixed feelings about Batman after realizing he paid for his fancy gear by shorting the housing market 🔗
I’m still wrapping my mind around the assertion that giving employees equity in the company they work for is a bad thing 🔗
It's not a real Excel model unless it can bring a Mac to its knees 🔗
Ha 🔗
People who have spent their lives in startups have learned to have very strong reactions to certain exponential/extreme growth rates. You learn the hard way to never underestimate something growing with that steep of a curve. 🔗
10 more pounds to go 🔗
"I worked a part-time job and paid for college out of pocket" 🔗
So apparently I owe @bryce $100 🔗
Moderators of debates should be able to cut microphones 🔗
In case you missed it: Last week Lambda School rolled out the details around how we finance income share agreements. Incentives are aligned all the way around. 🔗
A while ago my daughter asked why I had to go to work, and I told her I had to go to work to pay for the movie she was going to watch. Last night I realize she thinks I have to work for a full day every time she watches a movie. 🔗
The stock market is down to where it was a month ago and everyone is freaking out. We are so unprepared for a real recession. 🔗
++ Having one year of food storage 🔗
Such a weird rumor: Students are not the teachers at Lambda School. We have 85+ full-time instructional staff that we pay millions for, and many more contractors. Students can be Team Leads - think TAs - and we hire 1 for every 8 students, but that's not an instructor. 🔗
Yes, this is very important. If a student is working for Lambda School as a Team Lead or Section Lead (think TA) we consider them *not hired*. 🔗
There’s been some confusion recently about the outcomes at Lambda School, which we can appreciate. This thread will provide full details and more recent numbers ahead of a full report on outcomes we will be publishing shortly. 🔗
🤔 🔗
A couple years ago youtuber Josh Fluke decided to follow a random Lambda School student. It was hard. He was inches from giving up. Now he’s been an engineer for ~a year, sold an app that paid for a (sweet) new car, is supporting his fam & giving back. 🔗
Couldn’t find my son for a while. After a good long search my wife found him hanging out under the bathroom sink. First thing he said: “This my house.” 🔗
I’m young enough to remember times when we’d joke about things like “lol can you imagine if it were Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump?” 🔗
From 1965 to 2019 the S&P 500 returned a compounded annual gain of 10%. Berkshire Hathaway returned a compounded annual gain of 20.3%. Overall gains 1965 to 2019: 19,784% for the S&P 500 2,744,762% for Berkshire Hathaway Compounding is powerful. 🔗
Elderly neighbor, coming up to introduce herself: “Well, I’m the dinosaur of the neighborhood, and...” 2-year-old, cutting her off: “I’m a dinosaur too! *roars*” 🔗
Perhaps not the average Lambda School story, but I couldn’t be more proud. Huge congratulations to Rick, one of Florida’s newest (well paid) iOS developers. 🔗
How long will it be until there’s a massive lawsuit based on an NDA somebody accidentally signed using a tablet to check in? 🔗
What hyper-transparent companies are there out there? I’m more interested in the Gitlabs of the world that openly talk about decision making and what’s broken than the startups that share their revenue etc. 🔗
This is probably the most important and difficult lesson for founders with a bunch of fresh funding to internalize. Your job just changed. Now your job is hiring people *way better* than you to run stuff. 🔗
The rivets in the pockets of jeans are perfectly placed for scratching phone screens 🔗
Lambda School is putting on a 100% FREE technical recruiting workshop with some of the best in the business. If you’re a recruiter and would like to take your skills to the next level, check it out. Space is limited. 🔗 🔗
Wow 🔗
A story in two parts 🔗
With Wuhan schools under quarantine students were required to submit their homework via an app. Until they realized if an app has enough one star reviews it’s removed from the App Store. You’ll never guess what happened next. 🔗
Lambda School has been perfecting the art of running live, online classes for a few years now. If you know an in-person school or educator that is moving online as a result of Coronavirus, we’d love to help. Email 🔗
Step 1: Don’t test anyone to see if they are infected. Step 2: Look at the stats of those infected relative to general population. Conclusion: it’s contained! Schrödinger’s Coronavirus. 🔗
Yes they did the math wrong, but it’s much more worrisome that it seems feasible offhand for one guy to easily give a million dollars to every American. If you took the wealth of the richest *400* people and distributed it equally you’d get $9k/American. 🔗
The source we have for the idea that Coronavirus is “contained” in China is the spokesperson for the Communist party, who has lied constantly throughout his career. My confidence level that a metro area of 30m+ densely packed people has contained an infectious disease is zero. 🔗
Which environment would you rather work in? 🔗
If San Francisco ever starts to fail some economist will look back and try to figure out what the city did wrong. Answer: everything. 🔗
“When someone congratulates me on a good quarter they don’t realize those results were fully baked about three years ago.” - Jeff Bezos 🔗
When I pulled my daughter out of preschool on Wednesday and told them we wouldn’t be back for a few weeks the teacher joked about us being paranoid preppers. Today the preschool announced it’s shutting down for a month. What a difference three days makes. 🔗
Morals of price gouging aside, if you have 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer and can’t figure out how to sell them in this environment that’s 1000% your fault 🔗
The best part of the quarantine is seeing my kids more. The worst part is not going to the gym. 🔗
There are still absolutely mission-critical apps that are missing to make remote work as effective as it ought to be 🔗
Today’s economic crisis vs 2008. Much faster, nowhere near as severe yet. 🔗
Here we go. New world. 🔗
Lambda School students have been working 100% remotely for 9-18 months before graduation. We’re seeing many companies make a Lambda School grad their champion for making remote work effective. They know how it’s done. 🔗
When an NBA player had coronavirus they tested both teams including 58 players/staff. At that time the United States had tested around 8,000 people. .7% of all Americans tested for #COVID19 play in the NBA. 🔗
This isn't the bottom yet 🔗
Remember when @balajis was shortlisted for running the FDA? 🔗
It’s about to be more difficult for startups to be successful than it’s been in over a decade. Should be fun. 🔗
Can’t stop thinking about how right Balaji was, and how silly mocking “no handshakes” as “tech bros are overreacting” looks now 🔗
Basically the only stocks that are up today are remote education companies 🔗
1. I have no idea how the US can close schools. We use schools to distribute meals to children in need and as childcare for working parents. 2. I have no idea how the US can stop coronavirus without closing schools. 🔗
The NBA being suspended is the thing that is going to make the average American realize that this is real 🔗
Me: “Oh my gosh I just realized something—“ Wife: “—You’re excited that we’re going back to the part of Utah where the WalMart has those chicken wings you like?” “...OK that is uncanny.” 🔗
What it’s like to finally show your mom, who was concerned about you dropping out of college for Lambda School, that you’re now making 7x what you were a year ago. 🔗
Right now we’re refining. Focusing, tweaking, editing, perfecting. Much less sexy, much more important. Student experience and outcomes are all that matter at the end of the day. 🔗
My family and I are driving out to rural Utah tomorrow, both because there’s actually an office there I can use while the Lambda School office is closed, and because it’s a remote location. Put me down for team “Based on what we know we’re all still underestimating this thing.” 🔗
Slack feature request: Moderator tools. Close thread, report/flag message to HR/moderators/admins, etc. 🔗
Mitchell and I dropped out of the same university 💪🥳 🔗
In addition to closing our San Francisco and Utah offices, Lambda School is cancelling all in-person student meetups due to #COVID19 until further notice. 🔗
“I dropped out of [major university] even though I only had two semesters left before graduating. In 2019 my income was about $20,000. In 2020 my income will be about six times that, even after paying off the first year of my ISA.” 🔗
🙂 🔗
In order to slow the spread of #COVID19, Lambda School is closing both its San Francisco and Utah offices. School and all classes will go on uninterrupted. 🔗
Good morning from Lambda School 🔗
Alright if you had “a bat in a Chinese meat market causing a global health pandemic” as the cause of the next recession please come to the front and collect your prize 🔗
Is this how 2007 felt? 🔗
The good news is a couple more rate cuts and the government will pay you to borrow money to buy a house 🔗
London Breed was only six weeks too late. Everyone else was seven weeks too late. 🔗
Theory: there are very few startup companies with true long-term exponential growth. The vast majority of successful startups instead stairstep by stacking multiple instances of logarithmic growth on top of each other. (I believe the origin of this thought came from @wquist). 🔗
Since (none of) you asked, Mormons keep ~a year of food storage on hand without buying much extra food. Here’s how: Buy the same food, but rotate through by storing the new stuff and eating the older stuff. Most families have something like this in the “storage room.” 🔗
Can confirm we have and will continue to make mistakes. Working our hardest to minimize them. 🔗
“The conversion rate on our instagram ads plummeted recently. Did we change something?” “No. It’s the weirdest thing.” 🔗
Honestly terrifying if this trend continues 🔗
Very rough numbers: Coronavirus is growing in the US by about 33%/day. Mortality rate is ~3% of total cases. That would mean: 100k cases and 3,000 deaths in the US by March 26 (10 days from now). 600k cases and 15,000 deaths in the US by April 1 (one week later). 🔗
The good news is businesses have been deleveraging and avoiding too much corporate debt. Also good that the fed raised interest rates continually to make sure we have ammo to fight a crisis with. The response from state government meets and the CDC was swift and adequate. 🔗
My Twitter feed: 100% preparing for the next apocalypse Walking around small-town Utah: 100% “it’s just a flu” 🔗
Hospitals are gearing up for a massive shortage of CNAs/ICU Techs, both because there's already a shortage and because they're going to get sick/infected. A lot of people will die as a result. It only takes four weeks to train for these roles. This is solvable. 🔗
“Dad, Will Coronavirus be gone by Halloween? Because I really don’t want to miss trick or treating.” - 4 year old daughter 🔗
Holy hell 🔗
Could have just followed @balajis he was already tweeting about it 🔗
Peak unemployment in the US during the Great Depression was 24.9%. Unemployment right now is 3.5%. 9% of the labor force works in the restaurant industry. 10% works in hospitality/tourism. We may get within striking distance soon. 🔗
March 13, 2020: California unemployment continues record low 3.9 percent; employers added 21,400 jobs in one month. March 19, 2020: Coronavirus pushes California unemployment claims to 80,000 in a day 🔗
With schools closing, many Lambda School students found themselves trying to learn and watch their kids simultaneously We spun up remote coding workshops and other activities throughout the day for the different age groups Hopefully it helps those caregivers in a small way 🤞 🔗
It *is* interesting how closely the flu epidemic of 1918 was followed by the roaring 20s 🔗
The closest hospital to me in rural Utah (13k people in 1600 square miles) just stopped seeing all patients except for coronavirus. There hasn't been a single case in the county yet, but they're buckling up. 🔗
Zoom closed trading yesterday at a $33B market cap. 49x trailing twelve month revenue. 1100x trailing twelve month EBITDA. 🔗
Soon Wuhan will have negative cases 🔗
Alright, whoever on the Apple marketing team came up with the phrase “works at the photon level” instead of saying “uses light” deserves a raise 🔗
Blue Apron did $667.6 million in revenue in 2018. In early 2020 its market cap was $27 million. Honestly that’s almost impressive. 🔗
The upside of the pandemic is watching how quickly people are responding and iterating to figure out solutions to all sorts of problems. It's honestly pretty breathtaking if you take a second to step back and watch. 🔗
Waiting for the locusts now 🔗
Income share agreements are an incredible tool in a recession. Often, for unemployed folks, more education is the best/only path forward, and the last thing you need in that scenario is more debt. With an ISA you make tuition payments if (and only if) you’re employed. 🔗
Would this be interesting? How long would you want it to be? What hours? What would you expect to pay? 🔗
Skills needed to be a founder in 2020: * Build a great product * Hire a great team * Build a strong brand * Predict macroeconomic effects of something that has never happened before * Be a good leader 🔗
13.19 million Americans (about 9% of the total US labor force) work in the restaurant industry. 15 million Americans (about 10% of the total US labor force) work in tourism/hospitality. The two industries that represent about 20% of the US labor force are being decimated. 🔗
Imagine if this lockdown happened before the internet 🔗
Rural Utah isn’t too bad 🔗
So I’m behind the curve on this, is there a way for a non-critically-ill person to get tested for #COVID2019 yet, or is it still a “reserve all tests for x” situation? Asking for a family member 🔗
“Everyone is going to try working from home for the first time!” Oh awesome, it will be good to get everyone a taste of what remote work is like, I wonder if this will bring more adoption to “Also your kids are home and you can’t leave the house!” Oh no 🔗
Now for some good news: new cases of coronavirus in Italy and Iran seem to be slowing. Either anomaly in data, or lockdowns are proving successful. 🔗
When the “savings account with 3% APR!!!” becomes the “savings account with .26% APR!!!” 🔗
For all you Lambda School students (and hopeful students): What can we do to make Lambda School better serve your needs during this time? 🔗
Lambda School students turn out dozens of production-ready applications every month. What can we build to help the #COVID19 situation? Web, mobile, data science and UX. 🔗
Weird how all the companies that blew their whole balance sheet buying back shares at peak prices need a bailout now 🔗
Shut it all down. Now. It’s either that or hope for a vaccine. Not sure we have any other options left. 🔗
What companies: 1. Have very thin margins 2. Require people to gather in big gatherings to make money? 3. (Optional) Have a lot of overhead? 🔗
Is it just me or does every day feel like a year 🔗
Imagine if wework were publicly traded right now 🔗
Usually recessions are great for universities; people go back to school. But with the amount of fixed costs involved, if Universities can’t open and don’t bring in tuition money for their summer/fall semesters it’s going to be Armageddon in higher education. 🔗
Do any of you feel like the stakes of what you’re trying to do are just incredibly high? 😶🙏 🔗
I know there are home workouts you can do, but it’s brutal not going to the gym right after I made it part of my routine. Is there an app that will connect me with someone who will plan workouts for me and yell at me if I’m not doing them? 🔗
This has replaced my 4 AM Uber to the financial district 🔗
Analysis from JPMorgan Chase on how much of a cash buffer the median small business has. The average small business has a cash buffer of 27 days. The average restaurant has 16 days. 🔗
Wow that week was a crazy month 🔗
After much consideration, we've made the next week of Lambda School optional and offered a week-long break to those who need it. Students who don't need the week off will instead build projects to help those affected by #COVID19 or similar. 🔗
Silicon Valley is full of crazy people and I absolutely love it 🔗
That’s 4x if you’re doing the math at home 🔗
“Alright, what’s the coronavirus death rate?” “Well it’s hard because we don’t have an accurate numerator because of lack of testing.” “Ok well what about the denominator?” “Oh ya we don’t have that either.” 🔗
How’s this for social distancing? 🔗
Is this the bottom? 🔗
Where can I find bond trading twitter? Anybody have a list for that? 🔗
Lambda School investors and staff: This is the problem we were built to solve. Let’s get to work. 🔗
Just had my first “this is just the flu” conversation. What’s the best resource to help friends/family understand this is different? 🔗
“Circumstances don’t make the man, they only reveal him to himself.” - Epictetus 🔗
I worry a lot about this mentality. Some companies are affected more than others by sheer happenstance. Incredibly well-run companies will die. I’ve talked to companies who are losing 80-90% of revenue overnight. You don’t plan for that. Nobody saw this coming. 🔗
Suspicious indeed. What investment strategy would allow a HEDGE fund to be down less than the market overall? 🔗
This kid is not gonna be happy when we leave the farm 🔗
Right now it feels like we’ve done just enough quarantining to wreck the economy but not enough to flatten the curve much. 🔗
It’s incredible that we haven’t seen major service outages of Zoom 🔗
Reading a book about the economic fallout of 2008: “And the federal reserve, fearing possible recession, cut rates to 5.5%.” 🔗
So my read of the data is at this point most everyone in the US is gonna get coronavirus or its deus ex machina and we magically find a cure. Am I missing something? 🔗
High school prank, or obscene display of wealth? 🔗
This is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen 🔗
How long will the quarantines last? Drop predictions below 🔗
Alright, whoever predicted “We’ll be back to a raging bull market at the same time as unemployment claims blow past the rates during the Great Depression” please come to the front and collect your prize 🔗
The stock market is down 9% vs last year 🔗
Parents: don’t feel stressed about your kids that are home from school wandering through the background of a Zoom call or interrupting a call now and then. That’s part of life right now - we all get it. In fact we want to meet them. 🔗
Me, to my wife, two weeks ago: “At this growth rate California is going to have to be quarantined, so let’s go stay on your parents’ farm until this blows over. I am so smart.” Me two weeks later, realizing I now live with my in-laws indefinitely: 😳 🔗
The constraints forced by #COVID19 are going to produce some really, really cool stuff. Seeing it already. 🔗
Related: hearing a lot of schools are not going to admit students for the next few months because of coronavirus. If that’s you and we can help in any way: 🔗
Ok that’s interesting. Two things so far: 1. cheaper upfront tuition 2. temp work for students searching for full-time jobs 🔗
Potential (or current) Lambda School students: What can we do to better serve you during these precarious times? 🔗
As you continue to hear statistics about the mind-boggling amount of money that $6 trillion is, remember that Americans owe 1/4 of that ($1.6 trillion) in outstanding student loan debt. 🔗
“If you are ever tempted to look for outside approval, realize that you have compromised your own integrity. If you need a witness, be your own.” - Epictetus 🔗
The best part of coronavirus twitter is every single argument is now punctuated not just with “you’re wrong” but with “you’re wrong and you’re going to kill people” 🔗
Stock market is up 11% today. Very normal. Very cool. 🔗
Parts of the economy are still chugging along. Software engineers still getting hired regularly. 🔗
Not everyone can get their basic needs taken care of during these quarantines - especially those at risk. Lambda School students built a service to coordinate people who can volunteer to run tasks around town with those who are in need. 🔗
Fascinating now to read the early Vox explainer on Coronavirus. With hits like: This is mild, you’ll probably be fine Masks don’t help You’re probably fine sitting next to someone on an airplane that seems sick We are not facing a deadly pandemic 🔗
A while ago we accepted a few test students into Lambda School from India. They were hired instantly making 8-9 lakhs. The first one just messaged me. One year post-Lambda (he’s a college dropout) he landed a job making 22 lakhs. 🔗
S&P 500 futures hit limit up after hours. US 1 month treasury yield just went negative. What a world. 🔗
Gonna be wild when Buffett starts quietly rolling up all the airlines 🔗
The Zoom team raising a seed round 9 years ago: “By 2020 we could be a $40 billion company!” “What makes you think you’ll better than Skype/Hangouts? You’re competing with Microsoft and Google on an infrastructure play?” “Well, it’ll work better.” 🔗
Talked to an elementary school principal trying to help 70 30-person k-8 classes pivot from 100% in-person to 100% online overnight, so just know it could be worse than your engineering team going remote 🔗
Having a team of 20+ people keeping tabs on every company and their plans (including which companies are hiring more/pausing/slowing during the coronavirus outbreak) is more important than I'd ever imagined. Would be *so* hard as a student trying to navigate that without that. 🔗
Lambda School originally closed our offices until the end of March. We're extending that office closure until the end of April. If things turn for the better we'll revise. 🔗
Me: "Can you give me the passcode to the door? I figured I would try 1234 because we are in [small town] after all, but it didn't work." "Haha, yeah, it's 12345." 🔗